Probabilities: Brexit and US Election Outcomes

James Penn
October 8, 2020

The table below illustrates a select range of scenarios for equity markets in Q4 based on possible outcomes of the US Election and the finalisation of Brexit negotiations. The continuing impact of COVID-19, the development of an effective vaccine and the continuation of stimulus for equity markets has been considered with the most likely scenario, in our view, being that a vaccine is unlikely to be available within the next 6 months.

Skinny deal: An agreement being reached that avoids a hard brexit on the 31st December 2020.

Further delays:  A formal extension to brexit negotiations beyond the 31st December 2020.

Delayed Result: An extended period of time beyond 3rd November where the winner of the US election is yet to be determined.